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Frigid temperatures have taken over most of the country, except Alaska. We’ve been cold so long that President Trump is getting credit for ending global warming. That’s a joke.

The economy has been growing since Trump’s election in November 2016, with the stock market up about 25 percent. That’s not a joke. He and Republicans deserve some of the credit. Frankly, many Democrats disagree. My question to them is this: If a Democrat was President, and Democrats had the majority in Congress, would the Dow average be at 25,000? Would it even be at 20,000?

Of course there are other factors in the economy including: Gross Domestic Product, employment, and wages. The number of people depending on “food stamps” dropped by 2 million.

President Trump should be cautious in predicting the Dow will reach 30,000. Yes it can keep climbing, but it can also drop to 20,000 or 15,000 or…

We’ll check back in a year to see how we’re doing.

In Washington, we seem to have a dog chasing its tail. The special counsel, Robert Mueller, is investigating collusion between Trump and the Russians based (partly) on information in a document called a “dossier.” Now, the Republicans in Congress want to investigate the ones who paid for and wrote that dossier.

Competition is getting hot for the award for Best Fiction: the Dossier, or Fire and Fury.

Historic quotes by Will Rogers:

“I have read New Year predictions till I am blue in the face about the great future [of several companies], but I have yet to see one word on what [next year] holds for the Democrats. And that’s the very thing that makes me believe us Democrats may get a break in the coming year. I base my faith on the fact that 98 percent of all predictions are wrong, and on the fact that it’s an off year in politics and all off years are Democratic years.” DT #1071, Dec. 31, 1929

[early in the Great Depression] “Well, the old year is leaving us flat, plenty flat. But in reality it’s been our most beneficial year. It took some of the conceit out of us…  I don’t think [President] Hoover, the Republicans, or even Russia, is responsible for this. I think the Lord just looked us over, and decided to set us back where we belonged.” DT #1384, Dec. 30, 1930

Did you hear about the most appropriate Christmas gift this year? Treasury Secretary Mnuchin owns a house in Beverly Hills and wanted some fertilizer for his organic roses.  Well, a government employee for the County of Los Angeles in the Mental Health Department got word of it somehow (mental telepathy?) and personally delivered a load of horse manure to Mr. Mnuchin’s house. Mnuchin was amazed when he got wind of it. He probably figured there must be a horse nearby. The donor, Robert Strong, is proud of the gift. Who can blame him? Do you know how much it costs to have a truckload of horse manure delivered to Beverly Hills? Don’t be fooled by Rodeo Drive; no horses reside anywhere near that stretch of pomposity.

Now if Mr. Mnuchin (or even Mr. Strong) needs more horse manure I invite him to come to “my” little ranch up at Pacific Palisades. With a big horse barn and a polo match on Sunday afternoons, if you bring a scoop shovel you can gather up a ton of fresh fertilizer. This offer might be more important for Mr. Strong in case he loses his government job for his generous gift to a Republican. Folks in their mansions in Bel Air and Palm Springs might pay him $10 a pound for this precious natural resource.

President Trump says we will build a new Embassy in the capital of Israel, Jerusalem. Amazingly, over 50 countries where we have embassies in their capital city are opposed to this decision. Palestinians are opposed because they say East Jerusalem is their capital. Well, to be ready in case they can ever become peaceful and deserve recognition as a country, with a capital, let’s build the embassy on the border between Jerusalem and East Jerusalem. Maybe Guatemala can do the same, and other countries to follow. Create an Embassy Row right on the border.

The Tax bill was signed into law before Christmas. You may not have decided if you’re happy or sad. Here’s one fact: despite a limit on deductions for mortgage interest, 96% of people with home mortgages are not affected, and neither are 100% of those who rent or have paid for their homes.

One argument is over the end of the individual tax cuts in 2027, while the corporate taxes are “permanent.” It seems that every critic of the tax bill is terrified that middle class taxpayers will lose all the benefits they have gained. Two questions: if Republicans are in control of Congress in 2027will they vote to continue the tax cuts? Or if Democrats are in control, will they vote to raise taxes on the middle class? The obvious answers to both those questions tell you the tax cuts are permanent.

Happy New Year.

Historic quotes by Will Rogers:

“Money, horse racing and women: three things the boys just can’t figure out.” DT #2679, March 7, 1935

“I thought they had the Jerusalem and Palestine thing pretty well settled as to whose it was.” DT #966, Aug 30, 1929

“It costs ten times more to govern us than it used to, and we are not governed one-tenth as good.” DT #1770, March 27, 1932

“We owe more money than any Nation in the World, and we are LOWERING TAXES. When is the time to pay off a debt if it is not when you are doing well? You let a Politician return home from Washington and announce, ‘Boys we lowered your taxes. We had to borrow the money to do it, but we did it.’ Say, they would elect him for life.” WA #161, Jan. 10, 1926

“There is a tremendous movement on to get lower taxes on earned incomes. Then will come the real problem, ‘Who among us on salary are earning our income?'” DT #1051, Dec. 8, 1929

Republicans say they will pass a Tax Reform bill this week. They started off with a clear intention of simplifying the income tax system but by the time a bunch of picky Senators and Congressmen got through with it, the jobs of our professional tax preparers are secure. Most of the various deductions remain. More people will pay no income tax and most others will pay less than before. But it’s not simple.

Have you noticed the economy is improving? The GDP is growing and the stock market keeps setting records. Folks are in a generous holiday spirit. We haven’t forgotten the victims of hurricanes, shootings, fires, opioids, and other sad events. But for most, 2017 has been a good year.

Did any Democrat in the 2016 Presidential campaign lie to the FBI? (We know that General Flynn on the Republican side admitted lying.) Well, let’s go back to May-June 2016 when everyone was wondering when the FBI would interrogate Hillary Clinton about her email server during her four years as Secretary of State. When the day arrived (July 4^th weekend) everyone expected Mrs. Clinton to enter the FBI headquarters and be questioned personally by Director James Comey and other top FBI investigators.

That’s not how it worked out. Instead Clinton invited the top FBI investigator, Peter Strzok, (not Comey) to her house for tea and crumpets and idle chitchat. Strzok didn’t ask any questions about the email server, or top secret classified information, or the 30,000 deleted emails. He never let Mrs. Clinton mention anything about her term as Secretary of State. So did she lie to the FBI? There was no recording of the meeting, and since no substantial topics were discussed the clear answer is: No.

It seems that Strzok was also the chief fund-raiser within the FBI for the Clinton campaign, assisted by his mistress Lisa Page. Andrew McCabe, his wife, and a few others are involved in this puzzle. I hope my over simplification of the mystery is wrong. The Mueller investigation of Russian interference in our elections will get even more interesting in 2018.

In the Alabama Senate election, morals won, barely.  I think Republican Roy Moore could have won if he had borrowed the campaign promise Will Rogers used when he ran for President (as a joke) in 1928. “My only campaign pledge or slogan: IF ELECTED I ABSOLUTELY AND POSITIVELY AGREE TO RESIGN.”

Did you know the Senate passed two Tax bills?

Republican Senators say, “Our bill is a tax cut for the middle class. The standard deduction will double, meaning most people will file on a postcard and half of them will pay nothing. It will cause more businesses to expand in America, increase wages, and grow the economy.”

Democrat Senators: “This bill will raise taxes for everyone making less than $75,000. Social Security and Medicare will be cut, while President Trump’s family will collect a billion dollars. The national debt will go up at least $1.5 Trillion by 2027, and you know how we hate increasing debt.”

Aren’t you glad the Senate gave us a choice?

Was there a new sex scandal this weekend? I’ve been watching football so I might have missed it. With all these old men (and a few young ones) in Congress, television and movies there seems to be no shortage of men who see themselves as irresistible.

Sex scandals are nothing new in Hollywood. In the early 1920s a young comic actor named Roscoe Arbuckle was accused, but never convicted, in a scandal that ruined his acting career. The movie industry hired Will Hays to clean up the movies. He was in there over twenty years, and there’s considerable doubt whether he had any lasting effect on the movies.

The Federal investigation of Russia’s influence on our elections got the first guilty plea, from General Flynn. He admitted he lied to the FBI about talking with a Russian diplomat after the 2016 election. That got me wondering: did anyone else involved in that election lie to the FBI?

Historic quote by Will Rogers:

“From the record of all our previous investigations it just looks like nobody can emerge with their nose entirely clean. I don’t care who you are, you just can’t reach middle life without having done and said a whole lot of foolish things. If I saw an investigating committee headed my way, I would just plead guilty and throw myself on the mercy of the court.” DT #2620, Dec. 28, 1934

COLUMBUS: Will Rogers was back in newspapers across the country this weekend, including our Columbus Dispatch. Paul Wiseman wrote an Associated Press article on the new House of Representatives plan to lower income taxes on business and individuals. He described it as trickle-down economics and that “it dates back at least to a 1932 wisecrack by Will Rogers.”

In the story Mr. Wiseman included the first line of Will’s comments in Weekly Article #518 (Nov. 27, 1932): “The money was all appropriated for the top in the hopes that it would trickle down to the needy.” Will continues, “Mr. Hoover was an engineer. He knew that water trickled down. Put it uphill and let it go and it will reach the driest little spot. But he didn’t know that money trickled up. Give it to the people at the bottom and the people at the top will have it before night anyhow. But it will at least have passed through the poor fellow’s hands.”

Republicans are convinced that lower tax rates will lead to more total revenue because the economy will grow and total wages/salaries will increase. Also manufacturing and other business will come to the U.S. when the corporate tax rate is dropped to 20 percent from the current 35 percent. They point to the last time we had major tax reform under President Reagan when revenues went up from $600 billion in 1982 to over a trillion in 1990. They also say that eliminating most deductions won’t matter because at least three-fourths will take the standard deduction.

But Democrats don’t buy it. Do they want a “trickle-up” tax plan? Maybe raise the corporate tax rate to 50 percent, and raise the rate on the top earners, including capital gains, so the top 10 percent pay at least 80 percent of all income taxes. They would take all that extra revenue and give three or four thousand dollars to the ones who pay little or no income taxes. If Will Rogers is right the people at the top will have it before night anyhow. And they should be happy because there will be so few of them left in the country to divide it.

Since the Republicans are in charge, I say let them pass their trickle-down plan. Then if it don’t work out, in a few years the Democrats can take over and pass their trickle-up plan.

This is Thanksgiving week.  Even if you’re not thankful for Congress and the President, I bet you can find something in your family and surroundings that gives you great pleasure.

Hey, we’re not in a Great Depression like we were in 1934.

Historic quote by Will Rogers:

“Thanksgiving Day. In the days of its founders they were willing to give thanks for mighty little, for mighty little was all they expected.  But now neither government or nature can give enough but what we think it’s too little. Those old boys in the Fall of the year, if they could gather in a few pumpkins, potatoes and some corn for the winter, they was in a thanking mood. But if we can’t gather in a new Buick, a new radio, a tuxedo and some government relief, why we feel like the world is agin us.” DT #2594, Nov. 28, 1934

Congress is arguing over tax reform. Now you expect the Democrats and Republicans to disagree on taxes, but now the House and the Senate can’t agree either. For instance, on the inheritance (or death) tax the House wants to kill it, while the Senate wants to keep it on certain large estates. I’ll come back to that shortly, but first let me tell you about last weekend in Oklahoma. I was in Claremore November 4th celebrating “my” 138th birthday; not many men can make that claim. They had a big parade through downtown, followed by a party with cake, and then the Cherokee Women’s Pocahontas Club (founded in 1899) put on a Gala dinner. They had several other events, but I couldn’t make it to everything. Quite a few of the Rogers clan was there, including great-granddaughter Jennifer and great-great nieces and nephews. For the parade, most of the past 20 years my friend in Tulsa, Gene Pyeatt, has provided his 1924 Model T Ford Huckster for me. This year I got a model that’s newer, 94 years newer, a 2018 F-150 from Jack Kissee Ford in Claremore. With all the celebrating, we didn’t bother discussing inheritance taxes. But I did recall a few comments from the 1920s and 30s. So here are Historic Quotes from a much younger Will Rogers: “I don’t see why a man shouldn’t pay an inheritance tax. If a Country is good enough to pay taxes to while you are living, it’s good enough to pay in after you die. By the time you die you should be so used to paying taxes that it would just be almost second nature to you.”  WA #168, Feb. 28, 1926 “Now they got such a high inheritance tax on ’em that you won’t catch these old rich boys dying promiscuously like they did. This bill makes patriots out of everybody. You sure do die for your country if you die from now on.” DT #1767, March 23, 1932 “[The Treasury Secretary] came out with a plan to put a bigger tax on these big estates.  On an estate  of say  $10  million,  why  the  government  will  take  about  90 percent of it, and then giving the off-spring 10 percent.   And then on estates of a 100 million, 200 million, a billion, and like that, well, the government just takes all of that and notifies the heirs, ‘Your father died a pauper here today. And he’s being buried by the Millionaires’ Emergency Burial Association.’   Now mind you, I don’t hold any great grief for a man that dies and leaves millions and hundreds of millions and billions.  But I don’t believe the plan will work because he gives figures that shows what this new inheritance tax would bring in every year – that is, as long as the Democrats stay in. He seems to know just who’s going to die each year, and how much they’re going to leave.   Now, brother, that’s planning!  Now suppose, for instance, he’s got scheduled to die J. P. Morgan [or Bill Gates or Warren Buffett] in a certain year.  And you can bet if they can arrange it, they’ll have him die while the Democrats are in, so they can get the benefit of that estate. Now while I think Mr. Morgan is a nice man, and his patriotism might compare with some of the rest of us, but whether he’d be patriotic enough to want to die on this year’s schedule just to balance the budget.   He might be rather unreasonable and not want to do it.  I say, old men is contrary.  And rich old men is awful contrary.    So in order for [the Treasury Secretary’s] plan to work out a hundred percent, he’s got to bump these wealthy guys off, or something.   Well, now, the government’s doing everything else, you know, but there is a humane society.” Radio, April 28, 1935 [edited slightly]

President Trump is getting serious about the Mexico border wall. Contractors built 8 different designs, 30 feet high. I’m a bit surprised none of them duplicated the Great Wall of China. After all, have you heard lately of it being crossed by any Mongolians? And tourists pay a lot of money to walk on it.

Contractors could hang a walkway near the top of the 30-foot border wall and Trump might collect enough from tourists to pay for it. Once a year hold a Tex-Mex Marathon; those things raise piles of money. Someone suggested covering our side of the wall with solar panels and sell electricity. One problem: the sun shines on the other side.

Meanwhile, just in case Congress decides to fund the wall, Mexican drug lords and people smugglers have been practicing how to get over, under or through all eight wall designs. They operate a whole lot faster than Congress so they’ll be ready before the Wall is.

Do you think this border idea is new? Let’s go back to 1928: “See where they got a bill in Congress to make a road from Brownsville, Texas, up along the Rio Grande to El Paso, then on out to San Diego along the Mexican border. It’s a good idea and should be built.” (DT #449, Jan. 3, 1928) Well, Congress did nothing with the road idea back then. And 90 years later Congress may be just as excited about a wall.

A road that did get built back in the ‘20s and ‘30s was Route 66. It went from Chicago to Santa Monica, by way of Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas Panhandle, New Mexico and Arizona. Next weekend, I’ll be driving on a stretch of that historic “Mother Road”, at Claremore, Oklahoma. November 4 is Will Rogers’ birthday number 138, and you’ll agree that’s a birthday worth celebrating.

Historic quote by Will Rogers:

“Democrats gave me a birthday yesterday, Nov. 4. I was 51 years old, and they elected 51 Democrats. When I am 90 we will be running the country.” DT #1337, Nov. 5, 1930

On Saturday I was invited back home to help Lewis County, West Virginia, celebrate its 200^th anniversary. Back in 1817 it was still Virginia, not West Virginia. It’s a fine county with Weston as the county seat. It used to have glass factories, featuring hand-blown glass, and a historic “Lunatic Asylum.” A chunk of the farm and timber land has been replaced by the Stonewall Jackson Lake and Resort. A Wal-Mart has replaced several Mom-and-Pop stores. It still has wonderful friendly folks who congregate in communities such as Jane Lew, Ireland, Berlin, Camden and Valley Chapel. Plus the popular state 4-H camp at Jackson’s Mill, and a couple of “Country Roads” known as I-79 and Corridor H. They also have the Stonewall Jackson Hospital and the Mountain Military Museum. The county could make room for the new Amazon headquarters, but I doubt Mr. Bezos would see the wisdom of that decision.

“I am here [in Boston] helping them celebrate their 300^th Anniversary. As somebody here from the outside, I don’t see how they can tell when you are celebrating your 300^th and when you ain’t. You can’t look at the town and tell when it is celebrating. I drove down here in a car tonight and the ruts we hit must have been 300 years old.” (Will Rogers, Radio, June 15, 1930)

I read where the Census Bureau says the 2020 Census will cost almost $50 a person for an accurate count. Does that seem too high? I bet they could locate 300 million of us just by checking with Facebook, Twitter and Amazon. So they expect to spend at least $200 a piece to track down a few million folks that don’t particularly want to be tracked down. I think they could bring these people out of hiding a lot cheaper just by announcing that for the next ten years anyone who isn’t counted will receive no government money or services.

The President and Republicans in Congress say they want to reform taxes. Democrats are against it unless the rich pay more. Republicans say they want to reduce tax rates for everyone, especially those in the middle.

If you ask a Democrat how much of the total federal income tax the top 1 percent or the top 10 percent should pay, you never get an answer. Should it be 60 percent? How about 90 percent? None will answer, except for Bernie Sanders who will answer bluntly: 100 percent.

A concern of both Democrats and Republicans is what will happen to total revenues if tax rates are cut. Republicans say revenues will increase; Democrats say they will drop.  Well, the last time we had major tax reform was under President Reagan in the 1980s. Tax rates were cut, and, believe it or not, tax revenue went up. Yes, from $600 billion in 1982 to over a trillion in 1990.

They are arguing over deductions for state and local taxes, and mortgage interest.  Why should the taxpayers in the “low tax” states, and the majority who pay very little or take the standard deduction, “subsidize” those who itemize in New York, California or Illinois? Of course those folks will complain to Congress, but the ones they should be complaining to are their state and local politicians to get those taxes lowered.  And in the same way why should those in expensive homes with high mortgages get subsidized by those who rent or have paid off their mortgage?

Historic quotes by Will Rogers:

          “It’s a great country but you can’t live in it for nothing.” DT #2343, Feb. 5, 1934

“The crime of taxation is not in the taking of it, it’s in the way it’s spent.” DT #1764, March 20, 1932

“People don’t mind spending their money if they know it’s not going for taxes.” June 26, 1926

Texas is known as cattle country, so naturally Will Rogers enjoys every opportunity to visit. On Thursday Will was at Buffalo Gap where he was asked to talk about his experiences in Texas, especially West Texas.

Buffalo Gap has a population of less than 500 but 405 showed up at the famous Perini Ranch Steakhouse for a big fund raising event for the Taylor County History Center. Quite a few of ‘em came from Abilene, Stamford, Roscoe and nearby ranches.

“I’ve been on the stage for 20 years and I love it. There has never been a time when I didn’t like my job. But do you know, really at heart I love ranching. I have always regretted that I didn’t live about 30 or 40 years earlier.” WA #169, March 7, 1926

Will grew up on his family ranch at Oologah, Indian Territory (now Oklahoma) and got his first taste of Texas ranching in early 1898 (at age 18) in the Panhandle at the Ewing Ranch near Higgins.

“We took a trail herd to Kansas. I (saved) enough to buy me an old horse, and I went out to Amarillo. I rode in there in the summer of 1898, broke and looking for a job. Got a job with another big trail herd going away out in Western Kansas. We crossed the Canadian River at a famous LX Ranch.

That Plains was the prettiest country I ever saw in my life, as flat as a beauty contest winner’s stomach, and prairie lakes scattered all over it. And mirages! You could see anything in the world, just ahead of you. I ate out of a chuck wagon and slept on the ground all that spring and summer of ‘98. Lot of folks went to the Klondike, but I couldn’t get any further away from my home in the Indian Territory than Texas.

Well, here I was 36 years later [1934] driving out to a ranch, to eat at another Chuck Wagon and do a little roping.

A good deal had happened to everybody in 36 years. No more happens to one person than to another. Some things look bigger, but they are no bigger than the things that look little for the other fellow. No greater, no happier life in the world than the cattle man. He missed being with the Ziegfeld Follies, but so did I miss many a great meal from the tail end of a chuck wagon.

It’s always been the regret of my life that I didn’t live years earlier. I believe I woulda fit in with that Gang better. There is a lot of this so-called ‘Progress’ that I can’t keep step with. I believe an axe handle wrapped with cowhide would have fit and felt better in my hands than a golf club. I wish I could have lived my whole life and drank out of a Gourd instead of a paper cup.”  WA #605, 1934

“I went to San Antonio and had the most wonderful day there I think I ever had. There is a bunch of men called The Old Trail Drivers’ Association, and they are what keeps San Antonio of the old days alive.

They gave me a Barbecue. One of the finest feeds I ever had in my life. They had everything. They had the Chuck Wagon, even made one of the fires out of ‘chips.’  

I am a mighty young man to be allowed to mingle with those old fellows. For every one of them saw actual service up the trail to Kansas and Montana, from the 1860s to the early 1890’s. I just looked at those old fellows in wonder. Here they were 70 and 80 years old, lots of them straight and fine. They had trailed herds of cattle by the thousands from the Pecos to the Platte. They had done it year after year with not even a toothbrush in the outfit, six and eight months at a time, without a manicure. Not even individual soap; they all had to use the same piece. They swam rivers for 20 years without even a bath towel. Old grizzled gentlemen come to eat at that Barbecue that was 85 years old and never even had a face massage in their lives.

How they ever lived and existed under such unsanitary conditions I will never know.” WA #205, Nov. 14, 1926.

“Flew all night just to get over here to Muleshoe, Texas, to be at the Mashed O Ranch for the calf branding. This is a part of the famous XIT Ranch that was the biggest in the world [3 million acres].

The whole cattle country is mighty dry. The government is doing what they can to help ‘em out, but even a Democrat can’t make it rain.

There is no finer and more satisfying business in the world than the cow business when you get half a chance, but when the elements are agin’ you, you are just like a candidate that runs second.” DT #2476, July 10.1934

“The Fourth of July was coming on. I had a lot of invitations to a lot of places where I would have liked to have gone for the Fourth. The one I went to is a real cowboy reunion on one of their most famous ranches. Not a professional rodeo like you see everywhere else, but a real celebration in a real Cowtown by real old timers. I wouldn’t have missed it for anything. [I flew from Los Angeles to Abilene] and it’s only forty miles out to the town where the reunion is, Stamford, Texas.  I had often heard of the great time this little city holds every year. It’s called a cowboy reunion. It’s put on by real ranch hands. This is the heart of the old Texas ranch country. The outfits send in their chuck wagons and they have a great time. Lots of good horses and lots of good ropers. Grass is high and cattle are a good price and everybody feeling fine.” WA #655, July 1935 and DT #2780, July 3, 1935

President Trump will be in New York at the United Nations this week. Previously he has called the UN incompetent and no friend to US or Israel. He also complained that the US should not have to pay a fourth of the total budget for an organization of 190 countries.

He will be giving a speech and talking to a lot of national leaders but his main goal will be to find out if the UN has reformed. He will likely be disappointed. He can’t even get the Republicans in Congress to reform.

Trump also criticized China and is threatening to cut off trade and financial transactions if they don’t stop supporting North Korea. That has scared a lot of Americans who worry about a lack of Christmas toys and knick-knacks at Walmart. Well, China is smart enough to realize getting billions of dollars from us is more important than donating millions to “Rocket man” to develop nuclear bombs and long-range rockets.

In Washington, the next big debate is on tax reform. Now, to understand reforming of income taxes you have to know who pays the taxes. The top ten percent pay two-thirds of all income taxes. The bottom half pay almost nothing. Republicans want people to spend their own money, or invest it, instead of sending so much to Washington. That would mean more jobs, more productivity for American businesses, and a growing economy. That’s the Republican view. Democrats want the higher income people to pay more taxes so the government can share it with the bottom half. They think these people will spend the extra money and that will increase jobs and production. A good place to start tax reform is to eliminate all deductions, especially mortgages and state taxes. Why should people who rent or have paid off their houses subsidize others who borrow to live in expensive homes? And why should residents of states with low taxes subsidize those who live in high tax states including New York and California?

Historic quotes by Will Rogers:

“It costs ten times more to govern us than it used to, and we are not governed one?tenth as good.” DT #570, May 24, 1928

“There is a tremendous movement on to get lower taxes on earned incomes. Then will come the real problem, ‘Who among us on salary are earning our income?’” DT #1051, Dec. 8, 1929